“Lebanon Debate”

Everyone can agree on the fact that not just the South but the entire Lebanese arena is teetering on the edge of a cliff, waiting for a big explosion to expand beyond borders and impact all arenas of the axis. In solidarity with the Gaza against Israeli aggression, these arenas unified their stances back on October 8. They condemn the ongoing bloody war of annihilation waged against Gaza. However, none of these arenas actively intervened to prevent the war from spreading to Lebanon.

Following the recent assassinations in Beirut and Tehran, occurring in quick succession, controlling confrontations on both the Lebanese and regional fronts seems impossible. Washington will struggle to contain possible responses in the coming days, although it remains firmly committed to its decision to prevent an all-out regional war.

The unfolding of the next phase will hinge solely on the responses of Iran and Hezbollah. The situation now rests in their hands due to the assassination of Hamas' political bureau chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran and the killing of commander Fouad Chokr in an Israeli raid on Beirut's southern suburbs.

Is it possible that the situation on the South Lebanon front could escalate dramatically as part of Hezbollah’s initial response to Chokr's assassination? Political writer and analyst Kassem Kassir told Lebanon Debate that the situation is challenging and dangerous, with escalation against the Israeli enemy being inevitable. He suggested that Hezbollah’s response to Chokr's assassination is unlikely to be delayed.

However, Kassir points out that such an escalation does not necessarily equate to a major war. He explained that while Hezbollah's response will likely come from multiple fronts due to recent Israeli assassinations, whether this leads to an extensive and comprehensive war will depend on the nature of the response and how Israel and President Joe Biden's administration handle the situation.

Following the simultaneous assassinations of Chokr and Hanniyeh, Kassir anticipates that the response will involve the entire axis, with each region playing a role based on its specific conditions.

Kassir also noted that the unity of the various fronts has been demonstrated since October 7, and these fronts are now facing a significant test. He believes that from Iran to Iraq, Yemen, and Palestine, the challenge is to effectively translate the concept of front-line unity into practical terms.

There is no doubt, Kassir said, that the conflict has become open-ended, with no clear rules of engagement, as the confrontation has escalated to a new level of intensity.

!وحدة الساحات".. أمام الإختبار"