“Lebanon Debate”

While the Israeli attack on Southern Dahiyeh might have been somewhat anticipated given recent Israeli statements, the possibility of a full-scale war remains unlikely at this stage.

Despite this, the current situation does not rule out the potential for escalation following the attack on southern Dahiyeh. The unfolding events are happening in a context where diplomatic efforts and pressures to finalize a border settlement are competing with ongoing developments on the ground. According to political analyst Tony Issa, Israel aims to compel Hezbollah to accept the proposed arrangements in the south without further conflict.

In an interview with Lebanon Debate, Issa explained that Netanyahu leveraged the Majdal Shams operation as a pretext to address the ongoing standoff and confrontations with Hezbollah along the borders. Netanyahu was actively seeking a resolution to alleviate the problematic situation affecting northern Israeli residents. Therefore, the covert attack on Majdal Shams was used strategically to advance his plans.

Issa underscores that Israel is not seeking a full-scale war. Instead, Netanyahu's objective is to neutralize Hezbollah's influence, sever the connection between the Lebanese southern front and the Gaza front, and secure a safe environment for Israeli citizens in the North through security arrangements.

As for the means to achieve this goal, Issa confirms that in Washington, Netanyahu successfully got himself and his country big support. After successfully leveraging the U.S. presidential election period, he aims to use this success to influence events in Gaza and Lebanon. However, there is a consistent stance among Democrats and Republicans, including Donald Trump, as well as Europeans and Arabs, that "Resolution 1701 is the reference, and we do not accept Israel exceeding this resolution to attack state targets, only targets associated with Hezbollah."

According to Issa, this issue is crucial because it provides the American mediator Amos Hochstein with the leverage needed to continue his mediation efforts in Lebanon. Contrary to reports suggesting that Hochstein's mediation is dead, the coming period is expected to see renewed activity in mediation, with Hochstein playing a significant role.

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