“Lebanon Debate”

The region is facing critical military developments, making the next phase highly sensitive and cautious, with potential for confrontations to spread from the south across Lebanon. This comes in the wake of the assassination of Hezbollah leader Fouad Shokr in the southern suburbs and the killing of Hamas' political bureau head, Ismail Haniyeh, in Iran.

Journalist and political writer Asaad Bechara informed Lebanon Debate that the current situation involves waiting for the outcome of ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding the nature of the anticipated response. According to Bechara, this response, whether from Iran, Lebanon, or Yemen, will be confined within specific boundaries, similar to the response following the assassination of IRGC commanders.

Bechara suggests that if a deliberate response is agreed upon, this phase might conclude with a return to pre-Majdal Shams incident conditions. However, if an agreement is not reached, the risk of a larger confrontation remains high. Tehran, he notes, prefers to avoid direct military conflict with the U.S. or Israel due to its focus on preserving its regime and key sites in Iran, which could be targeted in an uncoordinated strike.

The region remains in a state of anticipation and caution, with the coming days holding open the possibility of various outcomes.

!المرحلة المقبلة"... سيناريو "الردّ المنتظر" يُرسم بدقّة"