“Lebanon Debate”

Following the assassination of Fouad Chokr, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah set clear boundaries regarding any potential retaliation. Contrary to popular speculation, the response did not escalate dramatically. Therefore, it is evident that the ongoing struggle between restraint and escalation remains in a phase of back-and-forth, with no decisive outcome so far.

In light of the current situation, writer and political analyst Ghadeb al-Mokhtar criticizes the ambiguous visions and intentions of both the Axis and Israel. He believes that no developments regarding retaliation will occur at least among the leaders of the Resistance in the region are still ongoing.

In an interview with Lebanon Debate, al-Mokhtar said that “Hassan Nasrallah chose his words wisely and delivered his speech with utmost precision. In his response to the assassination of Chokr, he retiterated that retaliation against Israel must be carefully studied.”
It is clear for the political analyst that both parties refraining from indulging in all-out war in the region. This caution is also reflected in the diplomatic efforts of Western and Arab nations, particularly U.K. and Egypt as they aim to prevent a counterattack from Iran or Hezbollah.

In al-Mokhtar’s opinion, the Israeli response on the alleged attack on Majdal Shames was “harmful through assassinating both Chokr and Ismail Haniyeh. Thus the revenge that is being planned with be on a similar scale. In other words: fierce, localized, painful and harmful, which aligns with Israel’s anticipations.”

In this context, al-Mokhtar addressed the “extraordinary preparations in Israel, the mobilization of the army and air force, the arrival of 12 American warships and an aircraft carrier, a medical alert in northern Israel, the transfer of doctors from central and southern Israel to the north, and preparations for potential attacks. This includes adopting the port of Ashdod as an alternative to the northern ports of Haifa, Jaffa, and others.”

So, where is the region heading?

In response to this question, al-Mokhtar explains, “The situation in the region has changed drastically following the assassinations of Haniyeh and Chokr. As Nasrallah stated, the battle remains open. U.S. plans, attempts, and proposals for calm in Gaza and southern Lebanon are insufficient to exert the necessary pressure on Israel to halt its aggression or to prevent it from expanding its operations beyond Gaza. Initially, Israel's pretext was to respond to the Al-Aqsa Flood, but it has since broadened its actions to Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Tehran. The confrontation has thus become unconventional and open-ended. It remains unclear when it might escalate into full-scale war, as all previous initiatives for resolution have failed and there are no current initiatives for calm until each side has exhausted its options.”

Regarding the U.S. position and the actions of its envoy and ambassador in Beirut, al-Mokhtar notes that "the U.S. is in a state of confusion, with a few months remaining before the presidential elections. It cannot impose any solution on Israel, and Netanyahu is maneuvering between Trump's and Biden's policies. Washington and its European allies are demanding more from the Resistance than from Israel, asking the Axis not to retaliate while urging Israel to minimize civilian casualties."

However, al-Mokhtar emphasizes that Russia "will not remain a passive observer and is planning its own response, as indicated by Putin's meetings with Assad and ongoing contacts with Iran. Russia will not accept the Middle East being monopolized by the U.S. and its allies."

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