“Lebanon Debate”

In light of UNIFIL’s expansion on the Lebanese southern front, numerous diplomatic warnings have been issued, particularly coming from France. Countries are worried about the potential escalation of the war in the South. This unstable situation has led embassies to consider issuing advisories for their nationals to leave Lebanon. Moreover, the security situation continues to deteriorate, despite the absence of significant ground developments and the imminent new phase of this war; except the announcement of new ground maneuvers in Lebanon.

Diplomatic sources highlighted the possibility of an all-out war that Paris has warned about. They linked this possibility with UNIFIL’s concerns that “deterioration will occur due to miscalculations” in the foreseeable future at least. The sources of Lebanon Debate confirm that Netanyahu’s speech in Congress reflects a catastrophic scenario for both parties. His escalatory rhetoric lacked any conceivable political solution or willingness to pursue a ceasefire with Gaza. Notably, the Israeli PM did not even mention the prospect of a negotiated settlement with the militant group Hamas.

The most dangerous aspect of Netanyahu’s visit to Washington is the series of demands to the U.S. administration that emerged from it. These demands were beyond military and political support for the upcoming phase. They even extended to liberate Israel from Joe Biden’s initiative aimed at calming the situations on the active fronts in Gaza and Lebanon.

Based on the abovementioned, diplomatic sources assert that U.S. foreign policy will remain unchanged, consistently placing Israel on a pedestal. The U.S. has never failed to provide support to Israel; however, it failed to recognize that the current shift in the situation will impact Netanyahu personally. They shall be aware that the Israeli PM is not in a position that allows him to use any of the U.S. influence and support to uphold his wars. Furthermore, the Biden administration opposes any escalation and remains committed to its role as a mediator. This commitment is evident in the efforts of Amos Hochstein’s efforts, Biden’s personal envoy, to implement Resolution 1701.

Putting aside the unlikely possibility of a settlement with Gaza and the implementation of Resolution 1701, the diplomatic sources do not expect any shift on the Lebanese southern front. The only aspect that changed is the intensifying Israeli intimidation. However, the overall ground situation remains stable, primarily involving attrition and operations marked by rapid and reciprocal reactions from both sides of the front.

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