August Will Be a Harsh Month

“Lebanon Debate”

Lebanon is bracing for a tense August, with heightened vigilance along the southern front. The anticipation is largely due to the expected response from Hezbollah following last week's Israeli aggression on the southern suburbs, which resulted in the death of prominent jihadist leader Fouad Shokr, along with seven civilian casualties and over 80 injuries. This raises questions about the likelihood of an all-out war.

Retired Brigadier General Shamil Roukoz commented that "the drums of war are beating," suggesting that Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, will affirm the inevitability of retaliation in his upcoming speech.

Roukoz speculated that while Hezbollah's response to these attacks may be significant, it might not escalate into a full-scale war. Instead, it could involve limited exchanges of strikes.

He noted that current mediation efforts aim to confine responses to specific retaliatory strikes rather than broad conflict, potentially indicating a resolution to tensions in Gaza and among prisoners. Roukoz acknowledged that while the situation is complex, he currently does not foresee a comprehensive war.

However, he cautioned that Lebanese regions might experience retaliatory actions from Israel, and this month could see severe skirmishes and intense confrontations.

!على اللبنانيين أن يتوقّعوا هذا الأمر... آب شهر قاسٍ

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